Agricultural History Review, Volume 71 Part 2 (2023), pp. 203–233

This study estimates the impact of climatic variability on agriculture in central Scandinavia between the sixteenth and early twentieth centuries. Climate indicators are analysed in tandem with the time series of harvest size, yield ratios and dates of agricultural activities. Harvests are estimated using c.9,000 parish-level tithe observations. Near continuous series of sowing, harvest, and hay-cutting dates between the late seventeenth and early twentieth centuries are estimated using a variety of sources. Mean growing season temperatures alone explain up to 26, 31, and 53 per cent of the variation in tithes, barley yield ratios, and harvest dates, respectively. Combinations of temperature indicators and the timing of agricultural activities explain up to 34 per cent of variations in tithes and up to 49 and 57 per cent of barley and rye yield ratios, respectively. While climate-agriculture relationships were consistent throughout the study period, the introduction of potato cultivation in the late eighteenth century helped reduce climatic vulnerability.